A cluster driven log-volatility factor model: a deepening on the source of the volatility clustering

We introduce a new factor model for log volatilities that performs dimensionality reduction and considers contributions globally through the market, and locally through cluster structure and their interactions. We do not assume a-priori the number of clusters in the data, instead using the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree (DBHT) algorithm, which originates from complex systems, to fix the number of factors. We use the factor model and a new integrated non parametric proxy to study how volatilities contribute to volatility clustering. Globally, only the market contributes to the volatility clustering. Locally for some clusters, the cluster itself contributes statistically to volatility clustering. This is significantly advantageous over other factor models, since the factors can be chosen statistically, whilst also keeping economically relevant factors. Finally, we show that the log volatility factor model explains a similar amount of memory to a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) factor model and an exploratory factor model.

Authors: 
Anshul Verma, Riccardo Junior Buonocore and Tiziana Di Matteo
Room: 
6
Date: 
Monday, September 24, 2018 - 11:45 to 12:00

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